Sean Brodrick – Sitting Tight Through Recent Volatility, Spotting Opportunities In Home Builders, Tech, Oil And Nat Gas, and Uranium Stocks
Sean Brodrick, Editor of Wealth Megatrends and contributing analyst to Weiss Ratings Daily, joins us to review how he is sitting tight through the recent downward pressure and volatility within US Equities, but also seeing value building in home builders, tech stocks, oil and natural gas stocks, and uranium stocks.
We start off having Sean outline some of the drivers of the recent market weakness. He points out that a number of earnings reports have shown the ROI has not been there for all the investment into artificial intelligence, and that many US companies are guiding for weakening earnings moving forward. Then there is all of the weakness from the Japanese Yen carry trade unwinding. Another layer of market uncertainty and volatility is coming from the political uncertainty around US elections this November, and which sectors would stand to benefit, based on which administration is in charge. Then there are concerns about the weakening macroeconomic data points that have accelerated into more fears of an imminent recession; which Sean feels is getting a bit overblown. Then one more big factor is the markets perceptions that the Fed is, once again, behind the curve with it’s monetary policies, and that they have stayed tight for too long.
Sean sees in the value in interest rate sensitive sectors like the home builder stocks, REITs, and auto-related stocks, as well as some of the tech and semiconductor companies that are now getting a bit oversold. With regards to the commodities sector, he continues to hold tight in the oil and nat gas stocks, as well as the uranium stocks, expecting both to still do well in the medium to longer-term, despite their recent corrective moves lower. He sees global growth being robust enough to underpin more need for electricity from natural gas plants and nuclear power plants, and feels the recent corrections in both nat gas and uranium, fly in the face of the fundamental factors at play.
.
Click here to follow along with Sean’s work at Weiss Ratings Daily and Wealth Megatrends
.
Time For The Defense To Shine? Part Deux
Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – August 3, 2024
“Nvidia’s share price still uncomfortably resembles Cisco Systems Inc., which played a similar role in the development of the internet when it peaked during the dot-com bubble in 2000.”
– Jesse Felder – 7:17 AM · Aug 1, 2024 – X/Twitter
John Quakes @quakes99 – 11:44 AM · Aug 4, 2024 – X/Twitter
“Let’s discuss Kazatomprom’s revised 2024 #Uranium Production Guidance for #Kazakhstan🇰🇿.
Raise your hand if U were fooled by the lying short sellers screaming ‘the sky is falling!’
Let’s start last Wednesday with Cameco’s conference call commentary on their Inkai JV with Kaztomprom:”
Production was down -21% at the Inkai operation for the quarter and down -18.6% in the first half of 2024 compared to 2023 “due primarily to continued challenges with sulfuric acid availability. The current production target at Inkai is 8.3 million lbs for 2024, but that target is tentative and contingent upon receipt of sufficient volumes of sulfuric acid.”
“However, all of that has become more complicated due to the sudden taxation changes that will take effect beginning in 2025. To be blunt, we’re becoming increasingly concerned with what we’re seeing in Kazakhstan. The government there has introduced amendments to the country’s tax code, which includes significant increases to the MET, the Mineral Extraction Tax, beginning in 2025. The surprising and disappointing change appears to have the greatest impact on foreign assets investors, as well as foreign equity investors in Kazakhstan, transferring expected value and profits away from investors and to the government. We’re evaluating the changes to the MET, but if it remains as currently formulated, depending on the assumptions used for uranium price, future production profile, and exchange rate, preliminary conclusions indicate that production costs in Kazakhstan would be similar to our northern Saskatchewan operations.”
“The increase in cost is happening at a time when the industry is still in the early stages of recovery, and it impacts about 40% of global primary production. So the global supply cost curve is expected to move up significantly. That would mean higher long-term prices are required for future investment decisions.”
“which then means that we need to see more sustainable, higher pricing to incent new supply, in particular new supply from elsewhere. So there is a broader industry implication that’s actually very constructive. The days of easy, cheap pounds coming out of Central Asia are effectively over.”
NatGas mid-morning: https://www.tradingview.com/x/jRydu7DL/
This is for visualization, not for exact calculation;
therefore only Fibonacci Ratios are shown.
BOIL should be used for trading.
Monitor KOLD for dips.
Very good call by Larry on Monday,
which must be confirmed.
Happening soon?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ayJK6f7o/
Initial Confirmation Level.
I appreciate the input BDC…It is valuable if not confusing for me to interpret…thanks for the additional color…glta
agree on the confirmation level…..if it cannot handle the price range…/NG probably has not yet completed its 3 year cycle low….and makes sense…..the over production on Henry Hub musta been large during the 5 plus run up…glta
I will address this Saturday, if not before.
Hopefully a moot point and
off to the races!
https://www.fibonomics.com/2024/08/charting-basics-abcd-natgas.html
Charting Basics : ABCD (NatGas Example)
For Larry.
Included BackBox Example.
OK BDC..the top chart…..super readable and crisp…..Which month of /NG was shown?….I think it is the active August?….
Red horizontal line> you use this to lay out the trading range from Swing high to swing low and visually bisect its oscillation?..
Yellow vertical dashed is visual lft/right time partition?
Yellow horizontal dashed is showing a price rise to accomplish capture of this trading range?
Black box elements> means what ?
Fibonacci ladder is added after you see a reasonable ABC up complete?
This whole thing is for very knowledgeable traders?..yes
Actually this part of your set up is fairly understandable…but the questions need asking..lol
tomorrow i look at the next lower chart….
Larry – NatGas is showing strength considering general market weakness. BDC
1. Late July into August (per dateline).
2. The Down Trend red line is 50%, for reference only.
3. Hash Yellow vertical/horizontal lines denote the important C point of the ABCD.
3a. Yellow level should be 2.149 not 2.150 (mistake).
4. “BackBox” elements are the X (high) and Y (low) of the lower chart.
5. A “Fibonacci Ladder” or “Fibo Ladder” is the vertical Fibonacci Ratio list, for pull back reference.
Gas Day today (Storage Report 10:30):
https://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
Used for timing only.
Commodities Update – Week In Review And The Week Ahead – Part 14B Energy Commodities
Excelsior Prosperity w/ Shad Marquitz – (08/04/2024) [Oil, Nat Gas, & Uranium]
https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/p/commodities-update-week-in-review-203